Pennsylvania Crime Statistics

When you take a look at crime statistics in the state of Pennsylvania from the beginning of the 1990s to the present day, you notice a few striking trends.

First of all, although PA's population has grown from just under 12 million to more than 12.5 million in the past two decades, the total number of crimes has actually declined. In 1991, for instance, when the State's population was at 11.9 million, the total number of crimes was over 425,000. By 2004, however, the number of crimes had shrunk to just over 350,000.

That said, the number of violent crimes has remained relatively constant. In 1992, for instance, there were just over 51,000 violent crimes; in 2004, there were almost exactly 51,000 violent crimes. Murders have declined in a statistically significant number since the early '90s. The number of rape cases, on the other hand, has remained steady at just around 3,250 or so on average. Robbery cases have declined significantly since the early '90s. Back then, there were an average of around 22,000 robberies per year in Pennsylvania; today, they are in average of around 17,000 to 18,000 robbery cases per year. Statistics on assault look somewhat different. In the early '90s -- from '91 to '94 --on average there were about 25,000 assault cases in Pennsylvania. Then in the mid '90s -- during 1996-1997 -- the number spiked significantly -- shooting well past 30,000! Today, the number of assaults has leveled out to around 28,000 or so per year.

In terms of property crimes, back in the early '90s, there were around 350,000 property crimes or so on average. Today, that number has leveled out to around 300,000. Burglaries, likewise, seem to have dropped off precipitously. In 1991, for instance -- the high-water mark for burglaries in PA over the past 20 years -- there were over 86,000 burglaries. By the middle of the current decade, however, that number had dropped to just around 54,000.

Pennsylvania is one of the best states in terms of crime prevention--number 10 in the nation. It's middle of the road in terms of violent crime--number 28 in the nation.

Looking at the statistics in isolation, one might tempted to draw conclusions about the Pennsylvania criminal justice system. But it's critical to evaluate PA crime statistics in light of national trends. Correlation never implies causation--it just implies an association. So, for instance, whereas we see this drop in property crimes from the 1990s to the present day, we can say very little about what actually caused the drop. We can only make guesses. Often, our state's policymakers fail to apprehend the significance in this distinction between cause and correlation.

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